Gold is currently benefiting from a favorable environment, as investors worry about rising budget deficits and unsustainable government management in the USA. As data from TradingView shows, the metal’s price has already risen by more than 47% in 2025 and is trading around $3,858. Market expectations focus on whether it can surpass the $4,000 mark, especially if a US government shutdown occurs.

Main factor driving gold price

Uncertainty associated with a potential government shutdown means that the central bank will have less data available to decide on interest rates. This could lead to faster rate cuts, which traditionally support gold prices. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding cash and increase the attractiveness of safe-haven commodities.

Interestingly, unlike stock indices, which according to several analysts absorb the shutdown risk relatively calmly, gold already shows increased investor nervousness. This difference suggests that gold is becoming a primary safe haven in times of market concerns.

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Current predictions and outlook for gold

Tension in the USA may serve only as a short-term impulse, while long-term factors, such as the deficit, remain the main driver of gold’s growth. On the other hand, the current situation is becoming a significant threat to the stability of the dollar.

Although US stocks remain in positive territory, the price of gold already reflects increased investor caution. This confirms that this metal is considered a primary safe haven in times of uncertainty.

According to estimates, gold could rise to $4,200 by mid-2026. The main reasons are geopolitical tensions and persistent concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. Some analysts even warn that a record gold price may signal problems for other asset classes, especially the stock market.