Bitcoin is currently in a critical zone just below the $100,000 mark, where exhaustion is starting to appear. According to a report by Glassnode Insights, most of the pressure is coming from the largest buyers among short-term holders who incurred significant losses during the decline.

Bitcoin as a target of selling

During the $98,000 price test, the STH Realized Profit-Loss Ratio fell below 0.21. This means that more than 80% of realized value came from coins sold at a loss. This level of short-term capitulation exceeded the three previous major cycle declines, showing how “crowded” the market is and how critical the $100,000 level is for short-term stability.

The profit-loss ratio of short-term holders shows how much sellers are selling at a profit versus a loss. When it declines, it indicates that most sales are at a loss, investors are capitulating, and market confidence weakens, which often precedes a price reversal or consolidation.

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Profit realization in decline

A dense supply zone above $106,000 continues to exert selling pressure. Restoring the cost basis of short-term holders remains essential for a sustainable turnaround toward recovery. On the demand side, the Realized Profit Short-Term Holders – a measure of new investment momentum – has been significantly weak since June 2025, indicating a lack of new market influence.

For Bitcoin to overcome resistance between $106,000 and $118,000, this indicator must rise again. This would signal renewed confidence and stronger interest from new market participants.

Short-term holder profit measures how many new investors achieved gains when selling BTC. If this metric declines, it indicates weak interest from new participants and low demand. This, in turn, limits price growth and increases the likelihood that Bitcoin remains in consolidation or mild decline.

Bitcoin is currently facing a phase of equilibrium between seller exhaustion and accumulation by buyers. The combination of weak demand and resistance may slow short-term recovery. This dynamic also indicates that investors face a challenging period where persistent accumulation below $100,000 will be key for stabilization.

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