A recession could soon hit the U.S. economy, warns financial magazine Finbold, pointing to an exceptionally accurate indicator: the Heavy Truck Index. This index tracks the 10-month moving average of heavy truck sales and is currently showing a decline – which experts say is a bad sign.

Recession reportedly coming within months

According to Guilherme Tavares, executive director at i3 Invest, while the U.S. economy is still propped up by stimulus packages and rising debt, the “high Heavy Truck Index” signals caution. Tavares states that if the current trend does not change, there is a high probability of a recession within the coming months.

This indicator has historically been very reliable – it predicted major economic downturns such as the oil crisis in the 1970s, the dot-com bubble in 2000, the mortgage crisis in 2008, and the pandemic-driven crash in 2020. Declining truck sales signal that businesses are cutting back on investments and anticipating a drop in transport demand.

ZERO percent chance of recession?

Despite an economy driven by massive stimulus and debt, the great Heavy Truck Index is signaling caution ahead.

According to it, there is a high probability we’ll enter a recession in the coming months.

Although today’s economic dynamics are… pic.twitter.com/xgVLxD3RsG

— Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) July 7, 2025

Tavares also notes that despite today’s unique economic conditions, this indicator remains a reliable barometer of business activity and confidence.

Mixed signals from the market

While the Heavy Truck Index is sounding the alarm, some markets are predicting a more favorable outlook. After trade tensions escalated in April, triggered by new retaliatory tariffs from President Donald Trump, fears of a recession intensified. However, after a subsequent reconciliation between the U.S., China, and other trade partners, the situation has stabilized.

As a result, Wall Street is lowering the odds of a recession in 2025. Still, Trump recently renewed threats of imposing new tariffs, which could again unsettle the markets.

Despite fears of a recession, according to data from TradingView, U.S. stocks are breaking records thanks to expectations of interest rate cuts, strong profits from tech giants, and massive investments in artificial intelligence. Investors continue to trust in the resilience of the U.S. economy and are ignoring warning signals, driving stock prices higher even in uncertain conditions.

The situation remains uncertain: on one hand, a historically reliable indicator signals a slowdown; on the other hand, markets and investors remain optimistic. It is only a matter of time before we find out which of these signals proves to be correct.

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