Bitcoin is currently standing at a crossroads between further growth and a correction. According to an analytical report from Glassnode Insights, the current sentiment among investors in the Bitcoin market is at a sensitive point. Short-term holders who bought at higher prices are beginning to show signs of losing confidence.

Sentiment and behavior of short-term investors

The behavior of short-term holders is tracked by the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) metric, which measures unrealized profit or loss relative to market capitalization.

Historically, deeply negative STH-NUPL values have been associated with capitulation periods that typically precede market bottoms. The recent drop in the Bitcoin price to $107,000 has caused the indicator to fall to –0.05.

This represents only a slight loss, which is relatively small compared to typical corrections in growth cycles. During these corrections, STH-NUPL often drops to the range of –0.1 to –0.2, and during deep correction periods, it can even fall below –0.2.

Currently, according to TradingView, Bitcoin is trading near $110,000, where many purchases from previous weeks are concentrated. This zone is very fragile. The market is not yet in full capitulation, but time is working against buyers as investor patience weakens and confidence gradually erodes.

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Bitcoin and the selling pressure of long-term holders

The second key metric indicating market developments is the Transfer Volume from LTHs to Exchanges (30D-SMA). This represents the volume of Bitcoins that long-term holders are transferring to exchanges with the intent to sell. This indicator recently surged to $293 million per day, more than double the typical range of $100–125 million that prevailed since November 2024.

Such an increase means that experienced investors are actively realizing profits, thereby increasing supply-side pressure. A similar trend was last observed in August 2024, when long-term holders began transferring their coins en masse during a slowdown in price growth.

If this activity continues, the market could reach a stage where spot demand will not be able to absorb the volume of Bitcoins being sold. This could lead to further cooling of prices in the coming weeks. Growing profit-taking and weakening confidence among short-term holders are creating an environment of increased uncertainty across the entire market.