According to an analysis by Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently in a state that resembles the periods of June 2024 and February 2025. These were moments when the market was deciding whether a recovery or a deeper correction would follow.

BTC supply in profit drops to a yearly low

At a price around $100,000, approximately 71% of the total supply remains in profit, which means that Bitcoin is now sitting at the lower boundary of the typical 70% to 90% equilibrium range observed during mid-cycle phases.

Although 71% of Bitcoin’s supply is still in profit, this marks the lowest level in the past 12 months. The market hasn’t seen such a low figure since September 2024, pointing to weakening profitability and increasing pressure on investors.

In such phases, short-term rebounds toward the cost basis of short-term holders often occur. However, a more sustained growth typically requires a longer consolidation period and a return of fresh demand. If weakness persists and a larger portion of the supply moves into loss, the market could transition from the current mild downturn into a deeper bearish phase, accompanied by capitulation and an extended accumulation period.

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Weakening holder confidence and signs of fatigue for Bitcoin

The decline from the all-time high of $126,000 currently stands at just 21%. Nevertheless, the market remains under quiet yet persistent selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs). This trend has been ongoing since July 2025 and continued even when Bitcoin reached a new high in October, surprising many analysts.

During this period, the supply held by long-term holders decreased by approximately 300,000 BTC, from the original 14.7 million to 14.4 million. While in previous phases of the cycle they typically sold during rallies, this time the opposite is happening — they are selling as prices decline.

This behavioral shift signals deeper exhaustion and weakening confidence among experienced investors. Many of them likely expect a prolonged stagnation period, which reduces their willingness to hold coins with low returns. Such behavior often precedes the final phase of correction, after which the market transitions into a period of stabilization and a new accumulation cycle.

Is Bitcoin waiting for a new impulse?

Historically, similar phases have been characterized by a mix of mild pessimism and a gradual return of confidence. The current behavior of holders, the decline in LTH supply, and limited inflows of new capital suggest that the market is searching for balance.

If the downward momentum can be halted and the price stabilized above the $100,000 threshold, Bitcoin could regain its footing for a new growth cycle. The key factors remain investor patience and the recovery of demand.

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