Bitcoin, according to historical data provided by TradingView, was expected to reach a cycle peak of approximately $124,500 and then enter an 80% correction. This model has repeated over several past cycles, always in connection with the halving. This time, however, it seems that the traditional scenario is no longer holding.

Bitcoin officially changes historical cycles

The growth period lasted from November 2022 until the April 2024 halving. According to historical parallels, the same phase should occur after the halving, until September 2025. This would mean that the peak could arrive in fall 2025, with the subsequent correction again reaching approximately 80%. Market data, however, suggest that such a sharp decline may not occur.

The reason is the presence of new factors that did not exist in the past. These include the growing role of institutions, the launch of ETF funds, and the broader acceptance of Bitcoin in the wider economy. These elements fundamentally change the supply and demand dynamics. In addition, there is a trend of more countries considering cryptocurrency regulation to improve transparency, which could further support investor confidence.

Get 100 $ bonus on Binance

Trend to market maturity

The first cycle violation has already occurred when comparing the returns of individual cycles. During the first halving period, Bitcoin achieved a growth of up to 60,000%. The subsequent cycle brought 10,000%, the next 2,000%, and the current one is around 700%. Each following cycle brought lower profitability, decreasing roughly sixfold, fivefold, and most recently just threefold.

This slowdown is a natural consequence of market maturation. Extreme returns, which were typical in the early years, are no longer realistic. On the other hand, this brings Bitcoin closer to the status of a more stable asset, suitable for larger institutional allocations.

If adoption continues, inter-cycle declines in profits will decrease further and volatility will gradually ease. This trend could pave the way for Bitcoin as an established digital equivalent of gold, not bound by the strict cyclical rules of the past. Furthermore, the presence of global ETFs and growing daily trading volumes shows that Bitcoin is moving definitively from an experimental phase into the category of serious financial instruments followed by millions of investors worldwide.