Bitcoin surged 5.16 % in September and entered the new month with fresh strength. According to TradingView, BTC is currently trading at $118,580 and appears to have completed a corrective formation. If buyers manage to push the price higher, there is a high chance of seeing a new all-time high.

Bitcoin starts october with a clear trend

According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin avoided the traditionally weak performance in September, achieving a 5.16 % increase. Historically, September is the least favorable month for this cryptocurrency, with an average loss of -3.08 %. The last time September was in the red was in 2022, highlighting that the current result can be considered very solid.

Now, Bitcoin enters the historically strongest phase of the year. Statistics show that October is extremely successful, with negative returns last recorded in 2018. On average, Bitcoin’s value rises by 20.53 % during this month. Even more pronounced is November, with an average gain of 46.02 %.

If a similar scenario repeats, Bitcoin could rise approximately 66 % over two months, potentially reaching $180,000. However, this is only theoretical and may not occur.

Since the beginning of the current upward trend, which started in November 2022, total gains would reach up to 1,000 %. Although this is about half of the previous cycle, it would still be an impressive result, confirming the market’s strength in the final quarter.

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Why BTC is rising?

Bitcoin’s rise is mainly due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and technical market conditions.

The current rally can be explained by the following main reasons:

• Weak U.S. labor market results – the U.S. private sector showed a decline in employment instead of the expected growth. This signals economic weakening and increases the likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts by the Fed. Lower rates mean cheaper capital, which traditionally supports risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• Expectations regarding monetary policy – according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are already betting that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 % at the October meeting. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns and alternatives to traditional assets.
• Ignoring U.S. government shutdown – even though the U.S. government entered a partial shutdown, markets do not see it as a serious threat. History shows that in similar situations, stocks and Bitcoin often rose.
• Correlation with stock markets and risk asset growth – as indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, Bitcoin as a risk asset rides the same trend.