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Bitcoin at the brink of a low: Is a major trend reversal approaching?

BY Marek Jendral
Bitcoin may form a long-term bottom

Bitcoin has experienced exceptionally intense price swings in recent weeks, with the level below $100,000 becoming a key battlefield between buyers and sellers. According to the analytical magazine Glassnode, this zone clearly reflects the exhaustion of short-term holders, who realized significant losses during the decline.

Short-term holders fell into massive losses

When the market tested $90,000, the STH Realized Profit-Loss Ratio fell below 0.20, meaning that more than 80% of the realized value came from sales at a loss. Such a strong capitulation even surpassed three previous major flushes within the current cycle and points to an extremely painful market for short-term buyers.

The current market structure shows continuation of the downward trajectory since early October. Above the $100,000 level, there is a dense supply zone that continues to push the price down. At the same time, regaining the short-term cost basis remains a necessary condition for any substantial reversal.

Profit and loss ratio of short-term holders
Profit and loss ratio of short-term holders. Source: glassnode.com

The metric of profit and loss ratio for short-term holders reaches levels similar to two previous corrections, indicating a high probability of forming a long-term bottom. This bottom may represent either a trend reversal point or just a temporary pause in the ongoing correction.

If it turns out that the market is indeed approaching the formation of a longer-term bottom, many investors consider gradually building a position. Bitcoin can also be purchased through the Binance platform, which provides easy and fast access to the market without a complicated process.

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Bitcoin and weakening demand

On the demand side, the situation is similarly fragile. Realized profit of short-term holders relative to long-term holders has been significantly muted since June 2025. Such weak values indicate a deficit of new capital. For Bitcoin to establish a firmer base and move from the correction phase into more stable growth, this indicator must turn upward and confirm a return of confidence from new market participants.

Bitcoin and realized profit relative to short-term and long-term holders
Bitcoin and realized profit relative to short-term and long-term holders. Source: glassnode.com

Interestingly, both monitored metrics have dropped to such low levels that they historically tend to accompany the formation of a long-term price bottom. It is not yet clear whether this will be the minimum from which the correction definitively ends, or one of the local bottoms within the ongoing decline. However, the probability of forming a long-term bottom is extremely high according to the current market structure.

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Marek Jendral

Written by

Marek Jendral