Bitcoin, according to data from Glassnode, is going through a decisive period, testing the conviction of investors buying near recent highs.

Over 15% of BTC supply is in loss

Trading near the short-term holder cost level usually indicates that the market is at a crossroads. After reaching a new all-time high, the percentage of supply in profit dropped to approximately 83.78%, meaning that more than 15% of all Bitcoins are trading at a loss.

This scenario has repeated for the third time in the current cycle. If Bitcoin does not hold above approximately $113,000, a deeper decline may occur. Such a development would increase the share of investors in loss and could trigger a broader capitulation wave across the market.

From a macroeconomic perspective, repeated exhaustion of demand signals that the market needs a longer consolidation phase. Investors are therefore closely watching whether Bitcoin can maintain key levels that would prevent a deeper correction.

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Bitcoin and pressure from long-term holders

Signs of market fatigue are further highlighted when looking at long-term holder activity. Since July 2025, when the market peaked, these investors have gradually increased their spending. The average 30-day selling volume rose from approximately 10,000 BTC to over 22,000 BTC per day.

Such behavior indicates that experienced holders are using higher prices to realize profits. At the same time, however, this weakens market stability, as supply increases faster than demand. This pressure keeps the market fragile and susceptible to sudden price swings.

If Bitcoin fails to recover above key levels, the consolidation phase is likely to last longer. For investors, this means the need for patience, but also an opportunity to re-enter the market if sentiment reverses.