Bitcoin shows signs of exhaustion after the rapid rally sparked by the FOMC announcement of a US interest rate cut. The price initially nearly reached 118,000 dollars, but the market subsequently entered a corrective phase, and Bitcoin is trading around 109,000 dollars according to TradingView.

Bitcoin forms the most stable growth in history

The correction from the all-time high of 124,500 dollars to the current 109,600 dollars represents only a 12 % drop, still moderate compared to the 30 % decline at the beginning of the year. Moreover, in the current cycle, which has lasted since late 2022, Bitcoin has experienced only 2 corrections of 30 %, with all other drops being milder. This is the most stable BTC growth in history.

According to the Glassnode report, this trend indicates a gradual reduction in volatility and healthy gradual growth, similar to the 2015–2017 period, so far without the typical long-term sell-off.

Top is approaching

By comparing Bitcoin’s performance from its cyclical bottom, we see that in terms of percentage gains, this is the weakest cycle in history. This trend of gradually decreasing profits has been observed for several years. Each cycle brings lower percentage returns, which is natural considering the increasing BTC market capitalization.

From a long-term perspective, it is logical that high percentage gains from previous cycles are no longer repeating. A time-based comparison of the current cycle, however, suggests that the market is approaching a potential top.

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Bitcoin and long-term holders (LTH)

Long-term holders of Bitcoin significantly influence market dynamics. Their realized gains from a new ATH to the cycle peak are historically indicators of tops. In this cycle, LTHs have already realized 3.4 million BTC, clearly indicating significant capital rotation and the maturity of this investor group.

Such a concentration of realized gains may signal that the market is preparing for broader redistribution. Further movements depend on short-term holders’ reactions and ongoing ETF interest.

ETF inflows have slowed according to Farside, reducing additional pressure on growth and potentially contributing to stabilization. Comparison with previous cycles shows that peak returns are gradually declining, although the current development remains very similar to the previous two cycles. The current cycle has lasted approximately 1,030 days, very close to the 1,060 days of previous cycles.